What the forecasters are betting on
Aggregated probability from 3 major prediction markets. Consensus on AGI by 2030: 41% and rising — but the distribution across sources tells a richer story.
10 QUESTIONS · 38K VOTERS
- PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
253476.0K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-04-21
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
161767.3K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
160359.3K forecasters7d ·0%41%41%59%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
143477.1K forecasters7d ·0%3%3%97%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
138088.0K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-07-20
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
134488.7K forecasters7d ·0%3%3%97%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
129085.4K forecasters7d ·0%3%3%97%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
127754.4K forecasters7d ·0%6%6%94%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
125705.0K forecasters7d ·0%59%59%41%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
123191.1K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
122676.7K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
117155.2K forecasters7d ·0%39%39%61%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
107254.8K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
103672.2K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
103633.6K forecasters7d ·0%23%23%77%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
101535.7K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
101255.3K forecasters7d ·0%6%6%94%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-06-15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
101143.9K forecasters7d ·0%100%100%0%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100368.5K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
98738.9K forecasters7d ·0%3%3%97%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
97929.5K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
97299.1K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
90210.4K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
87931.8K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
87479.7K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
87200.9K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-04-15
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
87186.1K forecasters7d ·0%100%100%0%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-05-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
87179.8K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
86000.2K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-07-20
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
83335.1K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO